The Forty Knot Rule

Mariners have an age old rule known as the forty knot rule. It states that when a storm is approaching, and you are beginning to feel it's effects, you need to steer your vessel in a direction that keeps you out of winds higher than 40 knots. The idea is to steer your vessel away from the storm, and away from winds of 40 knots or more. The reason is-in winds over 40 knots, you are not going to be able to steer your vessel out of harms way and the full brunt of the storm-seas build up too high and the situation will reach a point where there is not much you can do but just to try to hold your ground and not get pummeled.

What does the 40 knot rule have to do with our current fuel situation? It reminds me of a conversation I had with a top energy analyst just over two years ago. This was a a pivotal time in history because a major change to our gasoline supply was occurring-the phasing out of the gasoline blending component MTBE. This was a time when good decisions needed to be made about our near future transportation fuel needs. My question to him was-"why is it that people who are making the decisions about our fuel future and have control over the industry, the ones that should know what is going on with gasoline and diesel fuel issues-don't?
His answer was-"because, they are not experts."

The topic of conversation then turned to the recent Energy Information Administration report titled; Eliminating MTBE in Gasoline in 2006 by Joanne Shore, which warned of the situation we are now experiencing with transportation fuel-tremendous shrinkage of the gasoline pool with the removal of MTBE and the negative effects of integrating ethanol into the gasoline stream. Rebuttal from the ethanol industry spin doctors, the RFA , was laced with the same worn out stories we had been hearing about for several years- now, ethanol was the new flag for national security, energy independence, and patriotism-ethanol was the magic intoxicating elixir that was going to cure all our ills. Remember "Think Green, Go Yellow"...ect?.
Our conversation quickly reached a point of mutual agreement that the main issue with gasoline was -how do you replace the tremendous amounts of fuel volume, and octane, that would be lost when MTBE was taken off the market by the oil companies that summer. He went on to say..."when we look at the upcoming gasoline situation...it is a train wreck waiting to happen....we are standing besides the tracks waving the red flag, but it does not look like it is going to slow down. The choice has been made to go with ethanol.

Then, when we look at the future diesel fuel situation...with the switch in demand towards diesel, and the supply constraints due to the new Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel, the diesel fuel situation might make a bad gasoline situation look good. Then, if you take the gasoline situation, and you take the diesel fuel situation, these two separate issues have the potential to merge and morph into a Perfect Storm of instability."

Fuel Guru thinks this is a good analogy, and the current observation is- the markets are experiencing winds at 40 knots or greater right now, and it looks like it is building fast. The public has heard from the self appointed experts for the last two years, and their brainwashing messages about fantasy cures has created a situation that we could easily loose control of in the very near future. The 40 knot rule tells us that now is the time to change our course, and bring a message of reality to the fuels market.

Our fuel fantasy is no longer believable-we are feeling the pain, and positive change needs to happen now.
Read fuelguru.com to understand more.

Gusher of Lies-The Answer

Fuel Guru suggests picking up a copy of Gusher of Lies-The Dangerous Delusions of "Energy Independence" by Robert Brice. In his conclusion, Robert gives the answer the American public needs to know about our current fuel situation-

"America needs to educate itself about the world's biggest enterprise. Every year, the world's residents spend about $5 trillion finding,refining, delivering, and consuming energy. And yet, the the extent of most Americans' energy knowledge goes no further than what can be contained by a snappy sound bite that bashes Saudis or complains that gasoline now costs almost as much as milk. Simply put, energy is too important to the U.S. economy and the world economy for discussions about to devolve into meaningless rhetoric. The U.S. needs to move beyond its current infatuation with government by cliche' and face the reality that we live in an interconnected, interdependent world. When it come to energy, America stands at a crossroads. In one direction is the empty rhetoric of energy independence and the concomitant evils of protectionism and isolationism. In the other direction lies the modern world of engagement, politics, free markets, and the active embrace of globalism and all the complications that come with it."-Bravo!

Fuel Guru and Leading Edge Sciences has been the world leader in promoting consumer education of fuels and lubricants by working to build cooperative and competitive efforts for positive change in the auto and oil industry that will benefit the economy, environment, and bring real change to the consumer and market. Stay tuned!

Bush on Ethanol

George Bush endorses ethanol as the answer to $4-5 a gallon gasoline and diesel fuel prices. Note the safety glasses...

New Ethanol Study Could Spell Relief for Industry

A recent report shows that the corn ethanol industry may have it's best opportunity yet to prove ethanol has it's merits. The industry was recently described as "one of the longest-running robberies of American taxpayers in the history of this country" by Robert Bryce, author of the new book Gusher of Lies:The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence.

According to the new report titled "Study shows ethanol may benefit memory," researchers propose that there is possibly a loose connection between a study of moderate doses of ethanol given to rats that seem to improve their memory, and the effects of ethanol on the human memory. With capacity creep (too much ethanol) ready to roll over the corn ethanol industry, and the astronomical cost of corn eating up ethanol refinery margins, this new report may be a saving grace for the ethanol industry. Hey, it may be a stretch-but with the right marketing...

http://media.www.dailyvidette.com/media/storage/paper420/news/2008/03/18/News/Study.Shows.Ethanol.May.Benefit.Memory-3272466.shtml

Grote Reber-Transportation Visionary

Grote Reber is known as a visionary and renowned pioneer who demonstrated with amateur radio astronomy that the invisible electromagnetic radio universe exists.

It's my interest in amateur radio that brought me to know Grote Reber's work. I find it synchronistic that his interest in transportation fuel parallels my own.

His advice is clear and simple. We need to drive smaller vehicles.

The photo came from the book, "The New Astronomy: Opening the Electromagnetic Window and Expanding Our View of Planet Earth."

Grote Reber radio astronomy story on Leading Edge Sciences

Ethanol-Everyone is an Expert

Check out FuelGuru.blogspot.com for expert information on ethanol.

Ethanol: Shock and Awe

It has been two years since the initial shock/spike to our transportation energy reality. The timing of hurricanes Rita/Katrina came as our fearless leader was signing the Energy Policy Act of 2005. This energy policy act can be compared to the foreign policy/military plan that came to be known as "shock and awe," and we all know how well that worked out.

For over twenty years, we had a homogeneous gasoline supply. The oil industry and consumers had not experienced dramatic changes in gasoline all at once and virtually over night like we experienced in 2006. The three main factors that have synergistically combined to produce a massive storm of instability in our transportation energy supply are:
- Phase-out of MTBE
- Desulphurization of gasoline
- Ethanol integration

Somehow we have been led to believe that this system of producing liquid petroleum transportation fuel that has been developed, perfected and controlled for over a century is just going to change in an instant.Let me be clear when I say that almost all bio/alternative transportation fuel initiatives that have come to light in the last two years amount to polishing the brass on the Titanic.

Aside from all the legitimate concerns we are now hearing about associated with producing ethanol, there is a much bigger concern - how do you put all this ethanol into gasoline. Because ethanol cannot be shipped via the method of choice for transportation fuels, pipelines, ethanol intergration is seriouly limited. More importantly and basically overlooked or not realized is the fact that adding ethanol to gasoline is very expensive. Furthermore, there is a limit of 10% ethanol that you can blend with gasoline using the current technique, splash-blending, at the terminal.

Clean burning efficient liquefied petroleum gasses (LPGs) such as butane need to be removed from gasoline before ethanol can be added, or these LPGs will leach out of the gasoline resulting in an increase of air pollutants. In some areas of the country known as conventional gasoline areas, there is a waiver to the controls on this type of air pollution when ethanol is blended, and preliminary reports indicate this waiver for ethanol blending is causing increased ground level smog air pollution. Removing these LPGs result in a staggering loss of 3-5% of available gasoline supply. This is known as refinery shrinkage.

As an expert in transportation fuels it is quite frustrating to see real issues such as ethanol integration not addressed. It seems virtually nobody in the industry has thought about how all the new ethanol production that is coming on line very soon is going to be physically added to gasoline. The ethanol industry, that so much of our time and resources have been devoted to, faces serious risk in the coming months and years. The resulting backlog and glut of ethanol is predicted to result in a dot com. like bust for many of the smaller ethanol producers that have bought into the fantasy of ethanol. Soon the shock and awe of our grossly misguided energy policy will begin to hit home when the American consumer realizes there is nobody at the helm with a thorough and realistic plan.

Here are a few important news stories that people should be aware of:

Biofuels Don't Have The Juice To Go The Distance
http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/commentary/hc-plcbiofuels09.artsep02,0,7391054.story

Bush's ethanol dreams make corn a hot commodity
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/100840.html

(c) 2007 Jim Russo